Tag Archives: related scenarios

Related Scenarios

By Dr. Ken Olson

Have you explored Related Forecasts yet?  The SciCast Team frequently adds new questions and new links between questions. The links create clusters of related questions supporting “what-if” forecasts.  We will be showcasing some of those here on the blog.

For example, below we see part of the network linking three clusters of questions: Arctic sea ice, the GBO-4 biodiversity reports, and the Pacific sardine population.

Image

An arc (an arrow leading from one question to another) indicates that we think the outcome of one question might influence the other.  Questions connected by arcs will usually appear in each other’s “Related Forecasts” section.  For example, “GBO-4 Biomes” will appear for “Arctic sea ice extent” and vice versa.  Your biome forecast can depend on sea ice extent: presumably a loss of sea ice reduces that biome.

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Related Scenarios/Linked Questions – Almond Production

The forecast question “How many billions of pounds of almond meat will be harvested in California in 2013?”  has been resolved and is closed for additional forecasts. The most popular answer was a bit too low (1.80-1.89).  The answer was 1.92 billion pounds.

The USDA’s NASS ‘Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2012 Annual Summary’ was not published as originally scheduled due to the U.S. federal government’s 2013 budget sequestration.  Although the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has issued its annual almond summary in January nearly every year, this year we should not expect the ‘Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2013 Annual Summary’ until July.

Therefore, we decided to use the summary statistics of the Almond Board to settle this question. The twelve months of numbers for 2013 in the last table of the Almond Board report sum to about 1.92 billion pounds.

Please note that there are still open questions regarding almonds in 2013 that will not resolve until the USDA NASS publishes its report.
Make your forecasts on the remaining linked almond production questions:
  • Question 121:  What will be the total U.S. almond utilized production during the 2013 marketing season, in thousands of tons?
  • Question 122: What will be the total value of U.S. almond utilized production for the 2013 marketing season, in thousands of USD?
  • Question 104: What percent of managed honey bee colonies in the US will be lost during the 2013-2014 winter?  This has been one of our most popular questions and is linked to many of the agriculture questions.
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LinkFest

SciCast Update:

Last week we created 10 new linked clusters for “Related Scenarios.”

  1. Arctic Ice: 3 questions linked
  2. Photovoltaics: 3 questions linked
  3. Multijunction solar: 4 questions linked
  4. Fusion: 4 questions linked
  5. ADMX: 3 questions linked
  6. Superconductivity: 2 questions linked
  7. Mars: 2 questions linked
  8. Internet traffic: 2 questions linked
  9. ISS: 3 questions linked
  10. Bitcoin: 5 questions linked

Here is how it works:

Select your question (as usual):

Arctic_Ice

If you like, view the discussion, background, and/or trends & history by clicking on the applicable tab(s), as usual:

Arctic_Ice_Background

Make your forecast and see how you affected the chances — if you want to select a related scenario only, just forecast the current value. You will now be able to select (assume) an outcome.

Related_Forecasts_1

After selecting an outcome, you will see a related forecast question.Related_Forecasts_2

Select your answer to the related question, in this assumed scenario:

Related_Forecasts_3

Repeat as you like with different scenarios (assumptions).

We hope to add links roughly weekly. Feel free to make suggestions via the Comments feature.

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