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Q: Expected value? So, if I’m betting that A happens, shouldn’t I just make P(A)=99%?
A: If you knew exactly when we would calculate the expected value, this would be a profitable strategy. But (a) we will randomize, and (b)
we have selected questions many questions are still likely to resolve, so there is some risk.
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Prediction market performance can be assessed using a variety of methods. Recently, SciCast researchers have been taking a closer look at the market accuracy, which is measured in a variety of ways. A commonly used scoring rule is the Brier score that functions much like squared error between the forecasts and the outcomes on questions.