Category Archives: Prediction Market

Webinar Recording: SciCast, Cybersecurity Markets and the Near & Far Future of AI

SciCast participated in the TechCast Webinar Series on May 7, 2015, Forecasting in Turbulent Times: Tools for Managing Change and Risk.

The webinar covered The SciCast Prediction Market (Charles Twardy), Cybersecurity Markets (Dan Geer), and Near and far future of AI (Robin Hanson). Read the full description.  There were a few questions after each segment, and some more at the end.  (Hanson fans: note that Robin’s talk was not about markets this time, but a particular scenario extrapolation using economic reasoning from some strong initial assumptions, and the subject of his forthcoming book.)


Incentives Research (Part 1 of 5)

Because SciCast strives for continual improvement and also needs even more participants and forecasts than in previous years, we have been exploring the effectiveness of incentives, particularly monetary incentives, for increasing the quality of participation in a prediction market.  This post is the first of a five-part series to summarize the first two incentives studies as we start a third.  (Parts of this series of posts are based on previous technical reports unavailable to the public.)  This first post lays out the goals, hypotheses, and background of the incentives studies.  If you’ve been participating in SciCast for a while, you might better understand some of your own experiences after reading this. Continue reading