Category Archives: Movers and Shakers

Will Philae land successfully on the surface of a comet?

DataSheet_EM_100814-2_01

Background

SciCasters are following the ESA’s International Rosetta Mission and counting down the days of the much-anticipated landing of the Philae on a periodic comet known as Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The latest news from ESA states that it will deploy the Philae to the comet on November 12. http://bit.ly/1DQEAcy

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Will Google announce the development of a smartwatch at or before the Google I/O 2014 Conference next week?

Question number two of our new infographic series: Now Trending on SciCast: Will Google announce the development of a smartwatch at or before the Google I/O 2014 Conference June 25 and 26? We’re featuring a new question every 1-2 weeks. Download and share the infographic.

DataSheet_Smartwatch_0618

Make your forecast.

Related Questions

SciCast’s combinatorial nature allows us to take a user’s forecast for this question and use it to influence the outcome of related questions, such as:

1. Will the Apple iWatch be commercially available by the end of September 2014? Forecast Now

2. Will wearable technology increase the susceptibility of malware attacks on consumer devices in 2014? Forecast Now

 

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Will a major hurricane make U.S. landfall this season?

We’re excited to kick off a new infographic series for SciCast with this question about a major hurricane hitting the U.S. this coming season. We’ll be featuring a new question every 1-2 weeks. Download and share the infographic.

Hurricane Infographic

Make your forecast.

Related Questions

SciCast’s combinatorial nature allows us to take a user’s forecast for this question and use it to influence the outcome of related questions, such as:

1. In 2014, will an Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm prompt the mayor of New York City to declare a state of emergency? Forecast Now

2. Will there be 15 or more named storms (including subtropical storms) in the Atlantic-Caribbean-Gulf of Mexico region during the 2014 hurricane season? Forecast Now

Click here for more related questions.

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Can crowdsourcing help find the missing Malaysia Airlines flight #MH370?

On SciCast, we’ve posted three questions about the missing plane. Can crowdsourcing help to locate it?

Dr. Charles Twardy, Project Principal, explains the different ways to crowdsource a search. “When a community turns out to help look for a lost child, that’s crowdsourcing,” he says. “The community volunteers typically aren’t as well-prepared as the search teams, but when directed by experienced Field Team Leaders, they can greatly extend the search effort. Similarly, experimental micro-tasking sites like TomNod.com let volunteers help search piles of digital images. Call it the effort of the crowd. SciCast is about the wisdom of the crowd: weighing the vast amounts of uncertain and conflicting evidence to arrive at a group judgment, of say the relative chances of several regions or scenarios. This could be as simple as an average – a robust method with much to recommend it when judgments are independent.  Or it could be something more advanced, like SciCast’s combinatorial prediction market.  A market reduces double-counting, and may be better suited to the case where most of us are just mulling over the same information, but a few have real insight. The trick is to find a large and diverse crowd, and persuade them to participate.”

Following are the questions. Click any of them to make your forecast (register or login first). Also, see the discussion and background tabs of each question for more details and links to news sources.

Where will the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 be found?

What happened to Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370?

Where will Malaysian Air Flight MH 370 be found (extended version)?

The extended search region uses this map.

Image

See this blog post for info on how to explore conditional probabilities.

Click here to read more about approaches to crowdsourcing Search & Rescue.

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