The final SciCast annual report has been released! See the “About” or “Project Data” menus above, or go directly to the SciCast Final Report download page.
Exeutive Summary (excerpts)
Registration and Activity
SciCast has seen over 11,000 registrations, and over 129,000 forecasts. Google Analytics reports over 76K unique IP addresses (suggesting 8 per registered user), and 1.3M pageviews. The average session duration was 5 minutes.
The Recommender survey has closed, and results are in! Of the 37 survey participants, 59% perceive the Recommender provides recommended questions of interest about as often as if they were drawn randomly from the roughly 600 on the site. Continue reading →
The Recommender is used throughout SciCast to suggest new questions based on your previous activity. It is most obvious in the carousel on the main “exchange” page, shown below:
You’re invited to take a brief three question survey to help us make the Question Recommender even better. We appreciate your input and to say thank you, we’re drawing one name randomly on Monday, March 9 to win a $100 Amazon Gift Card. Previous survey-takers are already entered in the drawing. SciCast username must be entered in the survey in order to be entered to win.
The market is better calibrated than we thought, but not perfect. In our previous calibration post, each question counted once. In the chart below, each forecast counts once, which is the usual method.
Survey response rates typically decline with age, and newer technologies are better for surveying younger people, so we were surprised by the self-reported ages of people who volunteered to take our survey. See the distribution below. The number of users who are 25-32 years and users who are 60-69 years are about equal. We even have a fair number of users 80 and older.
Because only a small portion of users completed the survey, it’s possible that self-selection might have skewed the results, but there’s no good way to tell. Whether or not you think that graph represents our core users, the best way for us to find out is for more people to take the survey. It’s broken into four parts that you can find by logging in and clicking on the “Profile and Settings” tab on your dashboard. See below.