We’re thrilled to announce that everyone who participated in the accuracy contest will receive an invitation to be a guest star on Survivor: Future! Can you outwit the other castaways with your prediction power?
Please give us a hand with our research and take a moment to complete the latest surveys. On April 10, to thank you for your help, we’ll be conducting random drawings for $1,000 total in Amazon Gift Cards. You earn one ticket for each of these five surveys completed sensibly. Previous completions count. We will not ask for any personally identifying information and we strictly follow human subjects in research protocols.
Surveys we’d like you to complete are available in your dashboard.
- Quantitative Analysis (NEW)
- Demographic Information
- Professional Information
- Motivation and Thinking Style
- Knowledge and Reasoning
The post Analysis of SciCast Safe Mode Usage has been revised slightly to use a power law (x^k) instead of a logarithmic function (k ln x). This is because the logarithmic function could go negative, which the percentage of trades cannot do. Revisions are in red.
The Recommender survey has closed, and results are in! Of the 37 survey participants, 59% perceive the Recommender provides recommended questions of interest about as often as if they were drawn randomly from the roughly 600 on the site. Continue reading
The SciCast Accuracy Incentives contest has come to an end. The final accuracy leaderboard will be selected at a random time in the next few weeks. This will allow more questions to resolve as well as randomize the selection time to reduce the impact of attempts to inflate scores on unresolved contest questions.
Read more about the contest.
We’re looking for forecasting tips from our top SciCasters to include in our training lessons and we would love to hear from you. What tips can you share with fellow forecasters? Possible topic areas include:
- Question Selection
- Background Research
- Keeping up with News
- Estimation & Calibration
- Trading Rules
- Safe Mode or Power Mode Tips
- Website Tips
Feel free to comment here or send a message to firstname.lastname@example.org. Thank you!
You’re invited to take a brief three question survey to help us make the Question Recommender even better. We appreciate your input and to say thank you, we’re drawing one name randomly on Monday, March 9 to win a $100 Amazon Gift Card. Previous survey-takers are already entered in the drawing. SciCast username must be entered in the survey in order to be entered to win.
On February 12, 2015 we are adding additional questions to the final round for the accuracy contest. Forecasts on these questions – through March 6, 2015 – have their market scores calculated and added to a person’s “portfolio.” The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes.
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Can you be the most accurate forecaster on SciCast? Look for the questions marked with a gold Au symbol or select the “Prize Eligible” topics when searching questions. Forecasts on these questions through March 6th will have their market scores calculated and added to a person’s “portfolio.” The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes.