### SciCast Overview

C. Twardy, R. Hanson, K. Laskey, T. Levitt, B. Goldfedder, A. Siegel, B. D’Ambrosio, D. Maxwell “SciCast: Collective Forecasting of Innovation,” *Collective Intelligence*, 2014.

K. Laskey, R. Hanson, C. Twardy, W. Sun, S. Matsumoto. 2014. “SciCast_CIMAT_GTProb“. GTP2014, Fifth Workshop on Game Theoretic Probability. CIMAT, Guanajuato, 13-15 November.

### SciCast engine

W. Sun, R. Hanson, K. B. Laskey, and C. Twardy (2012), “Probability and Asset Updating using Bayesian Networks for Combinatorial Prediction Markets,” in *Proceedings of the 28th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-2012)*, Catalina, CA. http://pluto.coe.fsu.edu/UAI2013Workshops/BigData/papers/paper_9.pdf

W. Sun, R. Hanson, K. Laskey,“Learning Parameters by Prediction Markets and Kelly Rule for Graphical Models,” *Big Data Meet Complex Models: AUAI Application Workshop*, held at the Twenty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Bellevue, WA. pp. 39-48, July 2013.

Sun, W., Laskey, K., Twardy, C., Hanson, R., Goldfedder, B. 2014. “Trade-based Asset Model using Dynamic Junction Tree for Combinatorial Prediction“. MIT Collective Intelligence Conference, Cambridge, June. [Poster]

The (Gnu GPL) production probability engine extends UnBBayes:

*UnBBayes: A Java Framework for Probabilistic Models in AI*.

The (proprietary) experimental symbolic/anytime engine by Tuuyi, LLC is based on:

D’Ambrosio, B. Incremental Probabilistic Inference. *Proc. Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, *1993, pp. 301-308.

### SciCast JDM Papers

Olson, K. C., Twardy, C. R., Laskey, K., and Burgman, M. 2014. “Interval Elicitation of Forecasts in a Prediction Market Reveals Lack of Anchoring ‘Bias’“. MIT Collective Intelligence Conference, Cambridge, June. [Poster ]

Karvetski, C. W., Olson, K. C., Mandel, D. R., & Twardy, C. R. 2013. “Probabilistic coherence weighting for optimizing expert forecasts.” *Decision Analysis* 10:4, pp.327–340. July.

W. Powell, R. Hanson, K. Laskey, & C. Twardy. 2013. Combinatorial prediction markets: An experimental study. In *Scalable Uncertainty Management*, LNAI v. 8078. W. Liu, V. S. Subrahmanian, and J. Wijsen, Eds. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 283-296.

Burgman, M.A. & McBride, M. & Ashton, R. & Speirs-Bridge, A. & Flander, L. & Wintle, B. & Fidler, F. & Rumpff, L. & Twardy, C. 2011. “Expert Status and Performance.” PLoS ONE 6(7): e22998.

### Frequently-cited papers on prediction markets

J. Wolfers and E. Zitzewitz, “Prediction Markets,” *SSRN ELibrary*, Apr. 2004.

E. Servan-Schreiber, J. Wolfers, D. M. Pennock, and B. Galebach, “Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?,” *Electron. Mark.*, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 243–251, 2004.

J. Wolfers, E. Zitzewitz, and N. B. of E. Research, *Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice*. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

“Prediction Markets at Google: A Guest Post – Freakonomics Blog – NYTimes.com.” [Online]. Available: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/prediction-markets-at-google-a-guest-post/.

### Logarithmic market scoring rule & combinatorial markets

R. Hanson, “Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation,” *J. Predict. Mark.*, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 3-15. 2007.

R. Hanson, “Combinatorial information market design,” *Inf. Syst. Front.*, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 107–119, 2003.

J. Ledyard, R. Hanson, and T. Ishikida, “An experimental test of combinatorial information markets,” *J. Econ. Behav. Organ.*, vol. 69, no. 2, pp. 182–189, 2009.

### SciCast (formerly DAGGRE) blog posts explaining conditional edits

Twardy, Charles, “Why conditional edits?,” *http://blog.daggre.org*, 05-Nov-2012.

Twardy, Charles, “Combo Market Preview,” *http://blog.daggre.org*, 20-Aug-2012.

Twardy, Charles, “Leaderboard, Graph, and Ripple Effects,” *http://blog.daggre.org*, 09-Dec-2012.

### Other work on combinatorial markets

Y. Chen, L. Fortnow, N. Lambert, D. M. Pennock, and J. Wortman, “Complexity of combinatorial market makers,” in *Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic Commerce*, 2008, pp. 190–199.

Y. Chen, S. Goel, and D. M. Pennock, “Pricing combinatorial markets for tournaments,” in *Proceedings of the 40th annual ACM symposium on Theory of Computing*, New York, NY, USA, 2008, pp. 305–314.

L. Xia and D. Pennock, “Price updating in combinatorial prediction markets with Bayesian networks,” in *Proceedings of the 27th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence*, Barcelona, Spain, 2011, pp. 581–588.