The admins are monitoring several accounts which appear to be engaged in blatant gaming behavior such as “dumping” points from a shill account or “throwing” points across a leaderboard deadline, in opposition to any sensible accuracy-guided forecasting strategy. Most of these accounts will probably be disabled and eventually removed from all leaderboards. Disablings will be announced. Forecasters with permanently disabled accounts will have to start over. The SciCast team is examining some non-trading variables for possible exonerating evidence.
If you would like to start forecasting but you’re not sure how to begin or you’re a veteran SciCaster ready to take your forecasting to the next level, we’re here to help with training. The SciCast course, Understanding SciCast, is now available. Login to SciCast Predict and click “Training.”
We’re awarding Amazon Gift Cards to the first 180 SciCasters who complete the CHAMPS and KNOW quizzes with 100% accuracy on the first try. Badges are earned for Lesson completion with a score of 75% on each quiz. Continue reading
The second round of questions has been selected for the new accuracy contest. Forecasts on these questions from December 7, 2014, through January 6, 2015, have their market scores calculated and added to a person’s “portfolio.” The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes.
The market is better calibrated than we thought, but not perfect. In our previous calibration post, each question counted once. In the chart below, each forecast counts once, which is the usual method.
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