Monthly Archives: May 2014

Badge Wednesday Winners!

Winners 5/28/14

Congratulations, winners! The following SciCast forecasters won the second round of prizes: badge merit points. Learn more.

Winners, please let us know your Twitter handle if you have one, and we’ll tweet to you directly when you win. Be sure to share your news with friends!

Disinterest
jmkina
dilettante
rfuoco
MarketwannaBE
baileyharper
jonmckay93
MemberFDIC
pigmoose
MethodicalMan
bmth94
wbutton
abhayg
leabk
sflicht
e
dvasya
astrojacq
peace0831
PrieurDeLaCoteD’Or
Geoff
chewitt
mmachin
poopstix
Saint_Fiasco
quetzyl
mev
spaf
KRH
HAL9000

 

 

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Tuesday’s Prize Winners!

Winners 5/27/14

Congratulations, winners! The following SciCast forecasters won the first round of prizes, which included both a $25 Amazon Gift Card and badge merit points. Learn more.

Winners, please let us know your Twitter handle if you have one, and we’ll tweet to you directly when you win. Be sure to share your news with friends!

peaigr
DanielH
mev
WadeWillson
ninedaywatch
BubbaB
angela
Disinterest
benthinkin
jackyamashita
jkominek
sflicht
william.quixote
Salemicus
quijasi
mmachin
arjunr
ted
dilettante

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Honey bee question has resolved

The question, What percent of managed honey bee colonies in the US will be lost during the 2013-2014 winter? has resolved as “Between 21% and 25%,” with a Brier score of 0.31, notably worse than the baseline of 0.21.  There were 252 forecasts by 73 users.

For more information on the resolution, view this post on Bee Informed. Continue reading

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College Bowl Leaderboard

CollegeBowl

Here are this week’s scores for the individuals with highest points. Scores are the actual gains on College Bowl questions that have already closed during the contest. Updated 5/21/14 at noon EDT.

Team Leaderboard is coming soon.

User ID Points Team
sflicht 1240 Harvard University
ctwardy* 1184 George Mason University
Question Mark* 248 Duke University
jkominek 118 University of Colorado
MerrySeeker 71 California Institute of Technology (Cal Tech)
HAL9000 68 University of California Berkeley
rrich 54 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
saurabh_02 42 Texas A&M University
2493c162162b15c8 25 Northwestern University
iconreforged 8 Duke University

*Not eligible to win.

Learn more about the College Bowl & participate!

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Win Prizes for Making Forecasts on SciCast

SciCast is running a special!

For four weeks, you can win prizes on some days of the week:

  • On Wednesdays, win a badge for your profile.
  • On Fridays, win a $25 Amazon Gift Card.
  • On Tuesdays, win both a badge and a $25 Amazon Gift Card.

swag_he swag_ne swag_rn

On each prize day up to 60 valid forecasts and comments made that day will be randomly selected to win (total limit of $575 per person).

Be sure to use SciCast from May 26 to June 20!

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Dicty World Race 2014 Winners Announced!

The following report is taken from Dicty World Race organizer, Daniel Irimia’s lab note on Experiment.

Dicty Cells take 1st place!

The winners of the first Dicty World Race 2014 have been announced.. Dicty cells submitted by the lab of Arjan Kortholt and Peter van Haastert from U. Groningen, Netherlands have taken first place. These cells were trained by Ineke Keizer-Gunnink and Rama Kataria. The winner cells accounted for a remarkable 60% of the cells in the top 100 to finish the race.

… With HL60 cells in 2nd place!

In second place, are the HL60 cells from the group of Guillaume Charras in London, UK.

Other Top Finishers:

1.  A. Kortholt and P. van Haastert lab (Dicty) 
2.  G. Charras lab (HL60) 
3.  J. Faix lab (Dicty) 
4.  M. Myre lab (Dicty) 
5.  A. Kimmel lab (Dicty) 
6.  T. Bruce lab (Dicty) 

Read the full report, here.

See the forecast trends and history for the question: Which team will win the 2014 Dicty World Race? 

In addition to the questions for each specific team’s placement, SciCast asked which team will enter the smartest and the fastest cells. All Dicty Race questions have been paused. If you made forecasts, login and then visit your dashboard to see how you did. Watch for the SciCast analysis, coming soon.

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Second Dicty Amateur Video Analysis (17-May)

** Updated 18-May **

Some videos have been added today (refresh https://scicast.org/dicty), so I took a second look.  I don’t look through microscopes for a living, so this isn’t final.  Times below are the timestamped clock time, which elapses at about 8m per frame. I collected:

  • TeamNum: Team name number stated in the video title
  • TeamName: Team name and/or PI name(s)
  • t_First: time when the first cell entered the finish zone. There is some ambiguity for cells that hang out on the opening.
  • Num_3hr: #cells in the finish zone by the 3hr mark; not sure how Irimia is counting cells that leave after entering
  • Num_5hr: #cells in the finish zone by the 5hr mark (only 4 videos)
  • Notes: salient notes, in quotes

Often there were two mazes and finish lines visible.  In these cases I tried to count both finish lines.  I’m not sure that’s canonical.  Here are the results as I saw them (Changed format to avoid margin clipping; sorted by Num_3hr):

TeamNum,TeamName,t_First,Num_3hr,Num_5hr,Notes
Team 12,Kortholt,1:36,14,,”3 in at 1:36,4 @ 1:40,at least 14 at 3h”
Team 11,Faix,1:28,12,,3 in @ 1:36; I counted at least 12 entering by 3h
Control HL60,,1:42,9,,9+. I can’t get it to hold the last frame to count.
Team 9 HL60,Insall,2:14,5,,5+. Many cells got bored and went back into the maze.
Team 17,Kimmel,1:36,5,,5+. Can’t hold the last frame.
Caffeine Control,,1:56,4,,Last one just in time.
Race2Control,,2:15,2,5,”Lots of cells,lots of movement,esp. outside the maze.”
Racer X Neutrophils,,2:25,2,,Cell entering 2:25 jumps track next frame 2:30. Entered?
Team1,Strassman & Queller,2:38,1.5,3,Video starts at 1:30; 2nd cell just crossing at 3:00
Team 9,Insall,,0,0,”Video starts at 1:30; hard to see,but cells appear disorganized.”
Team18,Kay,4:07,0,1,Cells outside the maze are much faster!
Team5 HL60,Steinckwich-Besancon,,0,,”Only 5-6 cells visible,hardly moving.”
Team 19 HL60,Tschirhart,,0,,17 cells idly drifting around the mazes.
Team 7,Bruce,,0,,Halfway through the maze at 3h.
Team 10,Beta,,0,,No cells visible on the slide.
Team 20,Devreotes,,0,,Only 1 confused cell. Did preliminary videos have the wrong label?
Team 9,Insall,,0,,About halfway through at 3h.
Team 15,Myre,,0,,About halfway through at 3h.
Team14,Muller-Taubenberger,,,,Irimia says cells did not get to the starting line.

So, likely winners:

  • Overall winner (most finishers at 3h): Team 12 (Kortholt) with 14+ cells.  We had an email from Irimia mid-afternoon saying at that point they also thought 12 was the most likely.  Second place is probably Team 11 (Faix) with 12+ cells in. Third is likely to be either the HL60 line from Team 9 (Insall), or Team 17 (Kimmel), both with at least 5 cells in by 3hr.
  • Fastest: Team 11 (Faix) just edges out Teams 12 (Kortholt) and 17 (Kimmel) for the fastest single cell at 1:28. This may turn on the precise definition of finish line.
  • Smartest: Sorry, I don’t have the patience to count wrong turns.

Notes: Neutrophils need to be photographed more often — the fastest ones are simply sprinting too fast to uniquely infer motion between frames.

You can still edit the Fastest and Smartest questions.  Until Irimia announces the winners anyway.   https://scicast.org/dicty.

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We’ve been slimed!

In dramatic fashion, it looks like total victory for the slime molds over the human derived HL-60 leukemia cells! It must be a satisfying vindication for Dicty Nation as they celebrate a billion years of evolutionary perfection for amoeba-hood everywhere over the upstart human cancer cell challengers. No love lost for these little human mutants though – good riddance.

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Upsets brewing at the Dictys!

New video lifts the podium hopes of three teams: #11 (Faix – Germany), #12 (van Haastert / Kortholt – Netherlands), #17 (Kimmel – US). Watch the video closely for clues to contenders in the Fastest Cell question! But don’t forget that three teams have yet to be broadcast including some pre-race favorites. These are #1 (Queller – US), #18 (Kay – UK), # 14 (Müller-Taubenberger – Germany).

See the latest video at: Dicty LIVESTREAM Video

Then come to SciCast Race Central to adjust your bets!

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Tune in tomorrow dicty fans

Race video has not been refreshed and our pitcrew is concluding technical difficulties with the video are to blame. Tune in tomorrow for what we believe will be a photo finish  between several strong contenders, and to see how the 3 teams that had a later starting time fare. They include a pre-race favorite so the outcome is anything but certain.

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