Google Analytics statistics for SciCast, as of May 22, 2015.

SciCast Final Report Released

The final SciCast annual report has been released!  See the “About” or “Project Data” menus above, or go directly to the SciCast Final Report download page.

Exeutive Summary (excerpts)

Registration and Activity

SciCast has seen over 11,000 registrations, and over 129,000 forecasts. Google Analytics reports over 76K unique IP addresses (suggesting 8 per registered user), and 1.3M pageviews. The average session duration was 5 minutes.

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SciCast Data Available!

The full pseudonymized SciCast data is now available for download!  See the “Project Data” menu item above, or go directly to the Download Data page.  The form asks for your email so we have a way of contacting you and tracking downloads.

Many thanks to our sponsor for encouraging publication and distribution throughout our project — and beyond. Please cite SciCast in any publications using our data, and let us know what you’re doing.  We would also be happy for guest blog posts.

-Charles

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So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish!

SciCasters:

Thank you for your participation over the past year and a half in the largest collaborative S&T forecasting project, ever. Our main IARPA funding has ended, and we were not able to finalize things with our (likely) new sponsor in time to keep the question-management, user support, engineering support, and prizes running uninterrupted. Therefore we will be suspending SciCast Predict for the summer, starting June 12, 2015 at 4 pm ET.  We expect to resume in the Fall with the enthusiastic support of a big S&T sponsor. In the meantime, we will continue to update the blog, and provide links to leaderboard snapshots and important data.

Recap

Through the course of this project, we’ve seen nearly 130,000 forecasts from thousands of forecasters on over 1,200 forecasting questions, and an average of >240 forecasts per day. We created a combinatorial engine robust enough to allow crowdsourced linking, resulting in the following rich domain structure:

Near-final questoin structure on SciCast, with most of the live links provided by users.

Near-final question structure on SciCast, with most of the live links provided by users. (Click for full size)

Some project highlights:

  • The market beat its own unweighted opinion pool (from Safe Mode) 7/10 times, by an average of 18% (measured by mean daily Brier score on a question)
  • The overall market Brier was about 0.29
  • The project was featured in The Wall Street Journal and Nature and many other places
  • SciCast partnered with AAAS, IEEE, and the FUSE program to author more than 1,200 questions
  • Project principals Charles Twardy and Robin Hanson answered questions in a Reddit Science AMA
  • SciCasters weighed in on news movers & shakers like the Philae landing and Flight MH370
  • SciCast held partner webinars with ACS and with TechCast Global
  • SciCast hosted questions (and provided commentary) for the Dicty World Race
  • In collaboration The Discovery Analytics Center at Virginia Tech and Healthmap.org, SciCast featured questions about the 2014-2015 flu season
  • SciCast gave away BIG prizes for accuracy and combo edits
  • Other researchers are using SciCast for analysis and research in the Bitcoin block size debate
  • MIT and ANU researchers studied SciCast accuracy and efficiency, and were unable to improve using stock machine learning — a testimony to our most active forecasters and their bots. [See links for Della Penna, Adjodah, and Pentland 2015, here.]

What’s Next?

Prizes for the combo edits contest will be sent out this week, and we will be sharing a blog post summarizing the project. Although SciCast.org will be closed, this blog will remain open as well as the user group.  Watch for announcements regarding future SciCast.

Once again, thank you so much for your participation!  We’re nothing without our crowd.

Contact

Please contact us at contact@scicast.org if you have questions about the research project or want to talk about using SciCast in your own organization.

So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish

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Webinar Recording: SciCast, Cybersecurity Markets and the Near & Far Future of AI

SciCast participated in the TechCast Webinar Series on May 7, 2015, Forecasting in Turbulent Times: Tools for Managing Change and Risk.

The webinar covered The SciCast Prediction Market (Charles Twardy), Cybersecurity Markets (Dan Geer), and Near and far future of AI (Robin Hanson). Read the full description.  There were a few questions after each segment, and some more at the end.  (Hanson fans: note that Robin’s talk was not about markets this time, but a particular scenario extrapolation using economic reasoning from some strong initial assumptions, and the subject of his forthcoming book.)

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SciCast, Cybersecurity Markets and the Near & Far Future of AI

Please join us for a live webinar tomorrow, May 7 at 12PM EST. SciCast, Cybersecurity Markets and the Near & Far Future of AI is the second installment of TechCast Global’s webinar series. In the course of one hour, we will feature three thought-provoking segments and give attendees an opportunity to ask questions and interact with our panelists.

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